Abstract:

Background: The burned of cardiovascular diseases is currently growing in Tanzania mainly due to changes in life style and environmental exposures. Having limited data on estimated risk of developing cardiovascular events and the associated factors, could impend planning for tailor made interventions.

Objectives: This study aimed at predicting the 10 year risk of developing cardiovascular events across different age groups of adults living in Lake Zone Region, in Tanzania.

Methodology: This was a secondary data analysis study involving 6,958 adults aged >18 years obtained from community based cross-sectional survey conducted by Catholic University of Health and Allied Sciences in September 2019 in six regions of Lake Zone Tanzania. A multistage cluster sampling was deployed to obtained participants and a WHO stepwise questionnaire was used. Blood glucose levels and systolic blood pressure were measured using standard protocols. The participants 10 year of developing cardiovascular events was assessed using WHO AFRE prediction chart. Data were analyzed using STATA version 13; univariate and multivariate logistic analysis was done to identify the predictor of 10-year risk for developing cardiovascular disease at 5% level of significance.

Results: The median age of participants was 42 [IQR: 30-56] years. Prevalence of systolic hypertension and diabetes mellitus were 30.1% and 5.7% respectively. Prevalence of behavioral Cardiovascular risk factors were as follows; current tobacco smoking 6.1%, excessive alcohol use 10.1%, unhealthy diet 77.8% and physical inactivity 49.4%. Proportion of participants with no behavioral CVD risk factors were 11.8%while 53.9% had combined 2 or more behavioral CVD risk factors. The proportion of participants with high risk of developing CVDs within 10 years was 4%. Respondent with age > 55 years (aOR; 5.96CI; 1.59-2.98), female (aOR; 0.48 CI; 0.35-0.66), current tobacco smoking (aOR; 5.96CI; 3.99-8.92), systolic hypertension (aOR; 1.1CI; 1.09-1.11) and diabetes mellitus (AOR; 3.98 CI; 2.59-6.08) were associated with the higher likelihood of developing cardiovascular events in the next 10 years.

Conclusion: result of this study signifies the increase in cardiovascular events in the next 10 years in rural communities. Increased magnitude of modifiable behavioral cardiovascular disease risk factors indicated the increased morbidity, disability and mortality from stroke and coronary heart diseases in the next 10 years.

Recommendation: Public awareness, community screening and continuous diseases surveillance programs should be applied to the whole population to influence positive behavioral change and control cardiovascular diseases risk factors.